Business Cycles Analysis; The outlook for real GDP growth

Exposé Économie & marchés Économie générale

Date de publication :

26/06/2007

Langue :

Anglais

Format :

.doc

Nombre de pages :

35 pages

Niveau :

expert

Consulté :

1 fois

Avis client :

non évalué

Validé par :

le comité Oboulo.com

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Sommaire :

Sommaire

The environment
1. The international environment
2. The domestic environment
The real economy
1. Contributions to real gdp growth
2. Unemployment rates and capacity utilization
3. Wages, prices, interest rates
An alternative scenario: the ofce site
1. The main differences between the two scenarios

Résumé :

Nowadays, the real gdp growth seems to be the prevailing worry for every economy. We are going to analyze real gdp growth and employment in France in 2006-2007 in the context of the international economy. Our overall objective is to understand and to interpret growth forecasts for a given country (France), to understand and to analyze the elements contributing to real gdp growth.

To reach such a purpose, we'll first study the international and national environments of the French economy, to judge whether the international and domestic contexts are favourable or unfavourable for the French real gdp growth, and for its constituent elements. Then we'll study the real economy to form a growth forecast. In this second part, we'll study successively:

- Contributions to real gdp growth;
- Unemployment rates and capacity of utilization;
- Wages, Price, Interest rates.

Finally and to conclude, we'll try to find an alternative forecast scenario. The first scenario we'll study in the two first parts is based on the interpretation of data collected on the INSEE, Ministry of Finance and Central Banks sites, that is to say "official" sites.