Le taux de change du Renminbi chinois (RMB), sa gestion et les risques associés à l'investissement en Chine

Ever since the time China adopted its Open Door policy, it has received more and more attention from international scholars. In recent years this has been evident with respect to the exchange rate regime that China applied. At first it was praised because it helped China steer the dire waters of the Asian Crisis that occurred in the late 1990s. Although, as the world entered the new millennium, the exchange rate regime has been heavily criticised. Most of this criticism came from USA since they placed China at the top list of who to blame for their worsening trade deficit, blaming the undervalued nature of the Renmimbi (rmb). However, this is just a part of what we address in this paper. In the first part we will explain the current situation in China. We will see how chinese exchange rate regime changed from a dollar peg, to a peg based on basket of currencies. In the second section we will calculate the equilibrium exchange rate for rmb using the Law of One Price. Even though it might seem that the result is reasonable, there are several problems that we deal with, with respect to predicting exchange rate using such methods. In part three, we will discuss possible reasons for essentially keeping the rmb pegged. And in the last section we will present some risks and opportunities if China decides to freely float its currency in the foreign exchange market.

Current economic situation and the present exchange rate regime in mainland China.
China has been for the last quarter of century one of the best example of sustainable growth in the world's economy. Indeed, as stated in the Launch of the China Human Development report, over the last twenty five years its average economic growth remained above 9.4 % per year, whereas the world's developed economies generally grow an average of 3% annually.

The starting point of this economic revolution probably took place in 1978. Since then, the chinese government undertook a series of economic policies, transforming the efficiency of enterprises and giving a greater rein to market forces.